These days we are all more aware of the effects of climate change. In this short white paper, Levine and Bahe, a senior environmental scientist, highlight the science of climate change and then provide ways that lawyers can take a leadership role in this global issue.

Background

Early this year I had the honor of being selected to travel to Nashville to be trained to deliver the slideshow that was the basis for the Academy Award Winning Documentary “An Inconvenient Truth.” My commitment was to deliver a minimum of ten bro bona presentations during the year – raising awareness, generating discussion and sharing solutions. I am well on my way to delivering on my promise.

One of the venues where I presented was the spring meeting of the Law Practice Management Section in Williamsburg. Tom Grella, the Section Chair, asked me to present at the section council meeting to support a resolution on sustainable law firms that was being introduced by Ann McNaughton. I am pleased to report that the resolution was passed with unanimous support.

What follows is a short white paper I have prepared with a senior environmental scientist colleague. It highlights the science and points out what I believe are essential steps for government entities to be taking at all levels. I am including it in this column because I believe it points to the way lawyers who often represent or interact with various government officials can take a leadership role. I hope readers are so motivated. Since that LPM meeting, I have been asked to present at the California State Bar Environmental Law Section Annual Gathering. I am looking forward to that.

NOTE: The purpose of this brief paper is to generate dialogue and discussion among policy makers and those charged with the responsibility of protecting people and institutions from the negative effects of disasters and pandemics of all kinds. It is not intended to be prescriptive or definitive. The purpose is to raise levels of general awareness so that comprehensive responses can be developed and catastrophic consequences can be mitigated by timely action.

SYNOPSIS: Climate change will bring about changes with potentially serious consequences. Collaboration and coordination are essential to mitigate calamitous effects. Because the potential consequences are so great, it is essential to develop our competence now. We cannot afford to wait.

The Challenges

With rapid population growth, accompanied by the industrialization of nations, planetary conditions have become imbalanced in ways never before experienced. Unsustainable consumption of resources, increasing economic disparity and externalities associated with various industrial practices has resulted in indisputable alterations to the earth’s climatic patterns. Many of the alterations may be manageable in the context of long term implications, given actions to reverse or mitigate effects now. Others are not likely to be readily managed or adjusted in ways that can off-set more noticeable health effects in decades to come.

The debate concerning whether or not climate change is occurring, and, if so, whether or not human activity was a force has waned. Overwhelming scientific consensus is that human contribution to climate change is a fact. This, to a large extent, is a result of a substantial body of scientific work accumulated over the past 20 years, with some extremely important scientific inquiry completed in very recent times. The multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional and global nature of this work has resulted in broad consensus within the scientific community (and to a degree the policy community) that climate change is happening at unprecedented rates and human (anthropogenic) effects are a major factor. As a result of the availability of scientific evidence and overarching consensus on climate change, governments and the business community are beginning to embrace the importance of this issue.

The Science ABC's

Much of the early scientific research focused on greenhouse gases and emerging atmospheric conditions which were emerging as a result of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel based sources as well as industrial air pollutants associated with point sources of primarily sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions. Over time, the interactions and contributions of deforestation, land development and other forms of ecological alterations gained research attention. Scientists began to observe noticeable shifts in atmospheric temperatures (consistent increases in means) and associated shifts in atmospheric and oceanic currents. Population and behavioral transformations among some plant and animal communities in response to ecological shifts were also observed and correlated with changes in climatic activity. Today on many parts of the globe, very apparent alterations are occurring. These include polar and other ice caps and glaciers melting; plant growing periods extending; and migration patterns of butterflies, birds and pollinating species dramatically changing.

A general concurrence among scientists is that climate change will be demonstrated in ways of notable impact including increasing intensity of storms, extremes in heat and cold temperatures, rainfall patterns that either result in increased droughts or floods and more rapid melting of snow and ice, thus resulting in sea level rise. Those engaged in what might be called ‘responsive’ sciences (such as biologists and ecologists) recognize the potential implications this may have on species diversity, reproduction and overall health. Climate change, in combination with environmental degradation from other more traditional sources, plus human population trends (still increasing even though the rate of increase is declining) as predicted in many parts of the world could lead to very fragile conditions on this planet, having widespread and potentially devastating implications.

Potential Implicaitions

Ecosystems and the natural environment are being impacted by climate change now. As previously mentioned, some experts believe the alterations resulting from dramatic climate shifts could be catastrophic to some species and ecotypes around the globe. This will have an impact on human populations and communities in tangible and intangible ways. Discussions among science and community leaders have identified these areas of potential impacts.

Agriculture, Forestry and Forest Products

Extremes in average temperatures and ultimately rainfall events will have an impact on the viability and productivity of crop production regions. Droughts and floods could severely hamper production and profitability of crop yields worldwide. Similarly, the impacts of temperature extremes, water availability and affordable feed could severely alter livestock production.

Forestry is projected to be impacted by changes in moisture regimes and temperatures, in part due to variability in water demand by different species of trees, as well as implications to the occurrence and spread of disease and insect pressure. Declining productivity and/or shifting composition of forest feedstock would further influence the forest products sector as a result of changes in supply/demand scenarios, pricing and transportation needs.

Coastal and High Elevation Regions

Coastal areas and higher elevation, mountainous regions have benefited from diversified economies that are supported by recreation, natural resource supply and real estate markets. The rise in sea level is predicted to alter coastlines and impact inland properties on many shores around the globe. Increasing temperatures and fluctuating currents also can negatively affect the ecological balance of ocean environments, thus creating population declines among species of fish, shore birds and other sea life. Coastal flooding can create more instances of salt water intrusion into aquifers and water supplies. The magnitude and/or frequency of hurricanes and tsunami type storms also poses concern to coastal areas.

Not unlike coastal areas, the mountain regions of the globe support camping, hiking and skiing, as well as produce highly valuable forest goods and wildlife. The higher elevations typically serve as a temporary water supply sink for many areas as a result of snow pack and gradual snow melt seasonally. The alteration of species composition in the higher elevations and changes in snowfall and snowmelt patterns would be a concern for many communities and businesses.

Industry and Technology Sectors

All industry will be impacted by changing costs and availability of energy supplies, particularly if energy demand continues to grow while dependency on fossil fuels is slow, at best, to change. Infrastructure demands may also be affected as changes in temperature extremes and risks of intense storm events increase. Many industries rely on cheap and readily available water supplies that may be compromised as climate changes influence rainfall patterns. Some technologies may become too inefficient or costly in terms of externalities to utilize whereas new opportunities for innovation can create new economic benefits.

Building and Insurance

The implications to architecture and the built environment of climate change are reflected in potential shifts in supply of raw materials, demands for more efficient buildings (energy and water use) and changes in real estate transaction patterns. In areas where extreme and more frequent storm events would increase due to climate change, the availability and affordability of insurance will likely influence investment choice. The availability and affordability of property loss and casualty insurance inevitably will fluctuate as climate change realities are understood.

Health Care

As the risks of severe storms, flooding, drought and extremes in temperature rise, humans could be exposed to new or resistant forms of disease and vector transmission mechanisms worldwide. The natural evolution of resistant strains of bacteria and viruses may only be exacerbated by climatic shifts. This, accompanied by potentially compromised water supplies and safe food, could result in unforeseen pandemics. The current projections for severe geographic impacts unfortunately encompass areas of the globe where populations are very poor and health concerns are already on the brink of catastrophe. Furthermore, alterations to natural systems could impact supplies of natural medicinal resources.

Impoverished Nations and Populations

As mentioned above, many peoples that live in poverty and unhealthy environments could see near term threats from climate change such as sea level rise and severe droughts or floods. The ability of poorer populations to adapt to climatic shifts pales in comparison to wealthier groups as the availability of adaptive and ultimately sustainable lifestyle investments in communities seldom exist. Populations that take drastic measures just to survive may not be implementing choices that are sustainable, further compromising environmental and human health.

The issue of climate change demands awareness of the interrelationships and potential implications of choices, actions and ultimately opportunities for improvement in the planetary state.

Essential Levels of Coordination

The complexity of the interrelationships among the socio-economic, disaster preparedness, threat of pandemic disease and global geopolitical considerations cannot be over-emphasized.

The threats we are facing as a civilization do not pay attention to geographic or political boundaries. Such reality represents   both good news and bad news. The bad news is that unless we get beyond traditional divisions that keep us functioning in silo’s, we will have little if any chance of dealing with the impending challenges. The good news is that the external threat may present itself in such a way that traditional adversaries will readily understand the enormity of their threatened existence in a way that will enable them to work together towards a common benefit. This coordination will include bridging differences and developing trusted collaborations across:

• nations
• levels of government
• regions
• races
• cultural groups
• genders
• religions
• socio-economic states
• stereotypes
• enterprises

When we reflect on the images from hurricane Katrina it becomes clear how easy it is to falter!

Planning

No matter how good the planning, technology or intention to work well together it is essential to begin thinking about what needs to happen to effectively coordinate all the   vectors essential to an optimum, coordinated strategy. The recognition and intention to work together will not be good enough in a time of crisis. It is essential to determine both the “who”   and the “how” and to “Pre-Wire” relationships of people who will need to work together to get us through the potential calamities. The education will need to include:

• Information Exchange Mechanisms
• Trust Building
• Communicating Effectively
• Coordinating Effectively
• Building High Performance Teams

One method of doing this is to educate everyone involved in a common language and common process. The “Cycle of Resolution” is one proven method that can quickly provide essential crisis management tools   that provide a framework for coordinated action. The Cycle has been included in both the “Change Handbook” and the “Handbook for Business Strategy.” We believe that having methods and practices in place will provide the tools essential to increase our chances for a positive outcome if crisis hits. Without such tools in place we are likely to end up with the same challenges we saw among levels of government within the US during the Katrina challenges of 2005. These challenges will of course be multiplied by levels of trust and familiarity factors generated by national, cultural, racial and religious differences and divides.

The consequences of non-action or ineffective action are unimaginable.

Building "Collaborative Copetence"

Collaboration is the center of productivity. We collaborate through implicit and explicit agreements. Within all  traditional communication models, a certain commonality exists even though different language is used as we are striving to get from A to B simply, elegantly and easily.  A fundamental communications strategy solution is essential for all people working together.

Given ;collaboration is the goal:

1. BUILDING TRUST is the context that is always essential
2. RISK COMMUNICATION informs the nuance, framing and analytical background of the information that needs to be shared; and 
3. AGREEMENT and RESOLUTION guide and structure the dialogue that leads to agreements for action and results. 

There are other factors like emotional management, basic listening skills and collaborative negotiation which will need to be part of capacity and competency building. But those are less fundamental.

Leaders will understand the message, which is true in all levels and places of government, military and industry the world over. It's not a question of people accepting all three when they think they only need one. Everyone needs all three to be competent leaders as they operate at the same time, hand in glove, despite appearing as though operating in "silos." If you are dealing with sensitive issues that have consequences for different stakeholder groups, the communication must always be purposeful. Although it is always risky, it must take place in a climate of trust or it will be useless.

Conclusion

At this point in time, the possible implications of failing to mitigate potential consequences of the current trends reflected in climate change include:

• Flooding
• Drought
• Water and Food Shortages and Contamination
• Increased Homelessness
• Transportation Disruptions
• Disease and Pandemic Outbreaks
• Breakdown of Civil Structures
• Opportunistic Military Activity

Whether any or all of these calamities become a reality is unknown. The outcome will depend on the accuracy of current scientific indices and modeling as well as the level of voluntary or mandatory mitigation taken, some of which may or may not be successful – especially with ‘success’ being loosely defined.

Doing nothing is not a good option!

It is our opinion that given the variables and unknowns, institutional planning is essential. That kind of planning would be best served by remaining positive in approach and vision, using scenarios of what is possible and then making plans from there. Some of the potential hazards listed are already being addressed, while others are not. As we have suggested, it is our opinion that planning should include addressing both substantive concerns and, perhaps even more important, the coordination, collaboration and communication concerns.

To effectively provide for the welfare of the general population, effective coordination and alignment of effort between the local, state and federal government and industry will be essential. The plans derived must be put in place to effectively respond to any one or all of the potential challenges mentioned above. We suggest it is essential to now begin the facilitation of:

• Collaboration
• Trust Building
• Risk Communication
• Communication Skills
• Conflict Resolution
• Building Relationships
• Reaching Agreements for Action

As professionals who are experienced in assisting with the type of coordination, collaborative process and communications required, particularly where environmental issues are at hand, we feel it is critical to establish working relationships with you and your key stakeholders initiating these steps. The vitality and health of all life on this planet could be at stake.