Expert Analyses

How equipped are we as a nation to meet the threat of terrorism? What is the nature of the threat we face? How should we balance our needs for intelligence with protection of our civil liberties?

There are no easy answers to these questions, but it is essential that we as citizens engage in an informed debate on the future direction of our national security strategy. In the video clips offered on this page, you will hear the thoughts of national security and intelligence experts on the challenges we face and the strategies we might pursue.

For each of the expert analyses, you will find questions for viewing and discussion. Read through these questions before you view the video clip, then use these questions to guide your discussion of the issues raised by the expert.

Introduction to the Material

View this clip for brief previews of the in-depth analyses presented below. Also featured is an introduction to the material by Elizabeth Rindskopf Parker, Dean of the University of the Pacific McGeorge School of Law.

In-Depth Analyses

National Security and the Political Process

David Kay
Former UNSCOM Chief Nuclear Weapons Inspector

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• David Kay argues that, for the third time in our nation’s history, we are in the midst of major change in our approach to national security. What factors does Kay think are driving this change?
• What role might education—both in the U.S. and abroad—play in a new national security strategy?
• In what ways does Kay think our current political process is causing trouble for national security? Do you think these troubles could be overcome by changes in our political process?

Changing Nature of the Threat

Greg Treverton
Senior Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• What are some of the major differences Greg Treverton identifies between the national security threat we faced during the Cold War and the national security threat we face today?
• Treverton notes that, following government abuses in the use of intelligence information that were identified by the Church Committee in the 1970s, the response was to raise walls between intelligence gathering and law enforcement. There is now pressure to lower these walls to combat the threat of terrorism. What are the risks in lowering the walls between intelligence and law enforcement? How might those risks be avoided?
• Why does Treverton think we need to change our emphasis from vulnerability assessment to threat assessment?

Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism

Ambassador Thomas Graham
Former Director, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• Ambassador Graham credits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for stopping a worldwide proliferation in the number of nations capable of producing nuclear weapons. What does Ambassador Graham think is the status of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty today?
• Does Ambassador Graham support efforts to develop a missile defense system? Why or why not?
• What does Ambassador Graham think should be the focus of our efforts to diminish the threat of terrorism?

Suicide Bombers—Examining the Causes of Terrorism

Nasra Hassan
Director of United Nations Information Services

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• How important is poverty in creating terrorists? Were you surprised by this answer? Why or why not?
• Nasra Hassan believes that suicide bombing is “on a roll” and has become an accepted and integrated strategy for terrorists. Do you think there is anything that could be done to diminish the appeal of suicide bombing as a terrorist tactic?
• Hassan questions how educated professionals could be so enraged that they support or participate in terrorism. What are some possible reasons she identifies for this rage? How important is it for us to try to understand the sources of this rage?

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Post 9/11 Government Reorganization

Michael Vatis
Former Director, National Infrastructure Protection Center

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• Why does Michael Vatis think that creation of the Department for Homeland Security was a bad idea?
• Vatis refers to the work of the Markle Foundation’s task force on national security. One recommendation of the Markle Foundation task force was development of a decentralized network of intelligence analysts who can share information with one another. Why should the threat of terrorism be met by a decentralized model of intelligence gathering and analysis?
• How does Vatis suggest that an intelligence network could avoid the risk of leaks or abuses of intelligence information?

The Changing Nature of the Intelligence Challenge and a Fourth Amendment Primer,

Mary De Rosa
Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
and
William Banks
Professor of Law and Director, Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• How have the sources and needs for intelligence gathering changed since the end of the Cold War?
• Why were the framers of the Bill of Rights concerned about protecting a right to privacy?
• William Banks notes that the Fourth Amendment was intended to avoid overreaching in the area of law enforcement. If intelligence information is not being used for law enforcement purposes, should intelligence gathering raise any Fourth Amendment concerns? Can intelligence gathering affect any rights beyond the Fourth Amendment right to privacy?

Data Mining

Mary DeRosa
Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Questions for Viewing and Discussion

• Why is “subject based” data mining less controversial than “pattern based” data mining?
• What does Mary DeRosa identify as the potential harms of data mining? How could these harms be prevented?
• DeRosa raises the question of how the government will control its own use of information gathered from data mining. Assuming that intelligence gathering is largely a responsibility of the executive branch, do you think we can depend on Congress for effective oversight of the use of intelligence data? What about the federal courts?